Theory of Everything

Theory of Everything

What is a label worth? From my point of view, it is 0€ but many heard points. Let us take for the heard points the symbol ♠. A Chiquita-Minion or a Dole-Visit-My-Farm  has got very few heard points ♠ and a Bavea many ♠. My question is, are we able to measure the number heard points of each label with the data we have got here in the catalog?

Following example: We know the year of issue. A new label has got in general less heard points then a very old label. We can say for example a label of this year has got the value of 1♠ and a label that is 50 years old and is from 1969 of - lets say - 250♠. So I would suggest to do a balanced trade of a 50 year old label only if you get 250 new labels in exchange. This is the idea of heard points. Having said this, we like to get now the perfect formular to have balanced trades. That means: When we only focus on the year of issue than the number of heard points of a banana label B could be:

Heard Points (B) = (1 + year of today - year of issue(B)) × 5

The '+1' is to get at least a value of 1♠ heard points for a label from today. But this formular is not realistic, because it suggest to trade 5 labels from this year in exchange for only one label from last year. So a logarithmic function can be much better

Heard Points (B) = int(log₂ (1 + year of today - year of issue(B)))

This formular gives for a 10 year old label 33 new labels and for a 50 year old label 282 labels in exchange. Maybe this is a basis we can start with.

What else do we have next to the age of a banana label?

  1. The age of the label. Old labels have got more heard points then new ones.
  2. How much is the lable liked? If it has got many 5♡ then it is more worth than a label with only 1♡ in average. And maybe we should ignore the votes from llecha, because he really has got a bad taste. 8-)
  3. How rare is the label? If the label is in the collection of many collectors than it has got less heard points, then when it is only in one or two collections
  4. How many collectors offer a label for trade? If you get the label only from one collector, than it is difficult to get and has got more heard points then a label everybody is offering for trade.
  5. Where is the label from? If we have got a label from the Philippines, where we do not have many collectors then this label has got more heard points then from Ecuador, where potentially many trade pardners will offer this label for exchange.
  6. How many labels do we have from this country? Is it for example from Somalia where we do only have few labels than it has got more heard points then a label from Ecuador, where we do have some thousands.
  7. Is the label veryfied. Labels that are not veryfied have got less heard points then labels that are banana labels by 100%.
  8. If the label is only of the type certification than it has got less heard points than the normal main label. Same with the quality labels, promotions, box labels or wrappers.
  9. Labels with the motif 'Miss Chiquita', 'Dole Sunbeam' or 'Del Monte' have got a less value, because they come in masses.
  10. If the label is in a catalog entry with many labels then it is possible it belongs to a huge set or there are many of the same kind and has got a less number of ♠ compared to a label that has got only few labels in the catalog entry.
  11. If a lable is flagged as a special trade label of someone, then it will get some bonus ♠.
  12. How long is the label in the catalog? If it is just added, is brand new and you really like to have it now and do not want to waint, than it has got obviously more ♠

What else can we consider to measure the heard points of a label automatically by a computer program?

And well, the trick is now to build a clever formular, where the result is easy to understand. That gives for example for a standard label you find now in the stores 1.10♠ and for a Dole-Visit-My-Farm only 1.00♠. So let us start with a table that has got for each label of our catalog 12 columns. Each column stands for the above mentioned measure criterias. So the first column is for the age and has got values between 1 and 282, because no label that is older than 50 years is offered for a trade. And then we can rank the criteria and can say for example, criteria 1 is more important then criteria 6. After all the calculations we add all 12 results together and normalize, so the lowest value is 1.00♠.

What do you suggest? Any ideas how to continue? Can you make the formular more concrete?

to be continued ...

Last modified: 

Aug 2019

Comments

I believe, this atempt will

I believe, this atempt will be very difficult, to end up in a real listing. And this listing should move from one year to the next, because one label that has been recently issued, next year it will be "one year older". And I guess, that every one of the collectors has a different opinión about the true "value" of the labels.
With the scarce help we get now from most collectors will make this attempt almost imposible.In my opinión each collector should decide how to trade his new and old duplicates.

The idea with a clever

The idea with the help of a computer program is not to adjust the valule of our labels regulary on manually basis, because the programm is clever enough to calculate the value in real time. But it is hard to implement, that's right. And yes, each collector must decide if he likes to do the trade, even it has not the right balance in the opinion of the computer. But when there is a 3rd 'neutral' opinion it could help to negotiate the trade.

Will the computer have

Will the computer have different values for labels that have never seen a banana, regardless of age?
As for "likes" beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
I think membership issues are more important, too many freeloaders, The more changes to the web site would I assume result in higher cost to maintain. This may not be the answer to your main theme but you did ask for suggestions. BTW chiquita may be produced in great numbers but they are not available everywhere on the other hand some collectors seem to get rolls of other brands straight from source

Thank you Bert for your

Thank you Bert for your opinion.

We do not have a cost issues any more, when we add more information at each of the banana labels. The price to host the webite can change, but this will not have a reason, because of a bigger MySQL Database.

The second aspect, how a computer can decide individual preferences for example mint vs. found labels or a preference for Chiquita instead of Dole. I would say, there is no chance to add personal aspects when the computer gives his opinion about the balance of a trade.

So what I suggest is rather to give a second opinion by the computer. And this will be the opinion of the computer that can be of course different from your or mine optinion with all the personal preferences.

What I miss is the discussion about a 'balanced trade'. Too often it happens that very rare labels are asked to get in exchange for standard labels just right out of the supermarket.